How the model has actually done. Live pre-fight predictions are kept separate from the historical backtest, each with its sample size and uncertainty. Anything we don't have the data to measure is marked as unavailable, not estimated.
Two different measurements, kept apart on purpose. The live record is the model calling fights before they happened. The backtest is a replay on older fights and is only an estimate of how it should do.
95% range for the hit rate: 54% to 69%. 14 events, Aug 1, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026. Each prediction was recorded once, before its event, and the site never overwrites it.
95% range for the hit rate: 59% to 64%. Trained on the 7,346 oldest fights, then scored on the 1,297 most recent ones it had never seen (early 2024 to July 2026, reconstructed — the original run didn't save exact dates). Fighter stats were rebuilt as they stood before each fight.
With 159 graded fights the live hit rate is still uncertain by about ±7 points. The live (62%) and backtest (61%) ranges overlap, so the gap between them is within normal sampling noise, not evidence the model got better or worse.
| Method | Hit rate | Brier | Measured on |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coin flip (always 50/50) | 50% | 0.250 | any fights |
| Elo rating only | 55% | 0.246 | backtest, 1,297 fights |
| Stat model alone (no Elo blend) | 62% | 0.226 | backtest, 1,297 fights |
| This model (stat model blended with Elo) | 61% | 0.231 | backtest, 1,297 fights |
| Always pick the sportsbook favorite (market probabilities, vig removed) | 68% | 0.223 | live, same 145 fights |
| This model on those same fights | 61% | 0.239 | live, same 145 fights |
Not shown: a “pick the higher-ranked fighter” baseline. Past divisional rankings were not recorded at fight time, and today's rankings would be hindsight, so that comparison cannot be made honestly.
On the fights where we have sportsbook odds, the market's probabilities were better calibrated than the model's. That's common — betting lines are hard to beat — so treat an "edge" on this site as a reason to look closer, not a guaranteed advantage. The market figures use the last odds recorded by fight day, while the model's number was locked in one to two days earlier, so the market had a little more information.
Model feature-v1, trained Jul 20, 2026. The training data and the live record never overlap. See every graded fight.
The staking rule is fixed and simple: 1 unit, flat, on every settled value pick, at the best sportsbook price recorded before the fight, using the model probability locked in before the event. Profit is net units won; ROI is net units divided by units staked. There is no stake sizing and no price we did not record.
Among fights where the model's favorite was given 60–70%, a calibrated model's favorites win about 65% of the time. Counts per bucket: 50–60% n=111, 60–70% n=39, 70–80% n=9. Buckets with fewer than 10 fights are too small to read anything into.
Edge is the model's probability minus the market consensus, in percentage points, at the time of the fight.
| Pick | Model | Market | Best Line | Edge | Exp. value | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov vs Rizvan Kuniev · 2026-10-24 | 71% | 54% | -125 | +17 pts | +28.3% | Hit |
| Dominick Reyes vs Azamat Murzakanov · 2026-10-24 | 70% | 35% | +183 | +34 pts | +96.8% | Hit |
| Movsar Evloev vs Alexander Volkanovski · 2026-10-24 |
| Event | Date | Fights so far | Hit rate so far |
|---|---|---|---|
| UFC Fight Night: Medić vs Rodriguez | 2026-08-01 | 11 | 73% |
| UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld | 2026-08-09 | 22 | 82% |
| UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry | 2026-08-16 | 34 | 74% |
| UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs Rodrigues | 2026-08-23 | 47 | 66% |
| UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs Song | 2026-08-29 | 59 | 69% |
| UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs Parnasse | 2026-09-05 | 72 | 64% |
| Noche UFC: Silva vs Delgado | 2026-09-13 | 84 | 63% |
| Crypto.com UFC 331 | 2026-09-20 | 96 | 63% |
| UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos | 2026-09-26 | 106 | 63% |
| UFC 332: Silva vs Wang | 2026-10-04 | 120 | 63% |
| UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan | 2026-10-11 | 131 | 63% |
| UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs Malott | 2026-10-18 | 144 | 60% |
| UFC 333: Volkanovski vs Evloev | 2026-10-24 | 157 | 62% |
| UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs Walker | 2026-11-08 | 159 | 62% |
| 68% |
| 50% |
| -105 |
| +18 pts |
| +32.6% |
| Miss |
| Kyle Daukaus vs Marc-Andre Barriault · 2026-10-18 | 69% | 64% | -190 | +5 pts | +4.8% | Miss |
| Joaquin Buckley vs Mike Malott · 2026-10-18 | 62% | 46% | +114 | +16 pts | +32.3% | Miss |
| Khaos Williams vs Roberto Soldic · 2026-10-04 | 60% | 34% | +200 | +26 pts | +80.8% | Miss |
| Natalia Silva vs Wang Cong · 2026-10-04 | 74% | 65% | -200 | +10 pts | +11.7% | Hit |
| Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos · 2026-09-26 | 65% | 58% | -145 | +6 pts | +9.1% | Hit |
| Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno Ferreira · 2026-09-20 | 64% | 59% | -156 | +4 pts | +4.4% | Hit |
| Joshua Van vs Alexandre Pantoja · 2026-09-20 | 80% | 57% | -143 | +23 pts | +35.1% | Hit |
| Brandon Moreno vs Joseph Morales · 2026-09-13 | 62% | 49% | +100 | +14 pts | +24.8% | Hit |
| Dan Hooker vs Salahdine Parnasse · 2026-09-05 | 67% | 19% | +425 | +47 pts | +249.4% | Miss |
| Fares Ziam vs Axel Sola · 2026-09-05 | 65% | 58% | -150 | +7 pts | +8.1% | Miss |
| Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore · 2026-08-16 | 72% | 48% | +102 | +24 pts | +46.0% | Miss |
| Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj · 2026-08-16 | 68% | 45% | +120 | +23 pts | +49.8% | Hit |
| Jalin Turner vs Kaue Fernandes · 2026-08-16 | 66% | 50% | -110 | +16 pts | +26.6% | Hit |
| Quillan Salkilld vs Mateusz Gamrot · 2026-08-09 | 63% | 56% | -132 | +8 pts | +11.6% | Hit |