A value pick is a fighter whose best available price pays more than the model thinks the fight is worth. Being the model's favorite is not enough — at a short price a favorite can still lose money in the long run.
The same rule decides the homepage list, the badge on each matchup and the filter on the fight card. A fighter must meet all five tests at the best price on offer:
Expected value per unit = model probability × decimal odds − 1. At −200 a bet must win 66.7% of the time to break even, so a 61% model number there is about −8.5% — not a pick, even if it is ahead of the market. Ranking: highest expected value first; ties go to the larger probability edge, then the higher model probability. Edge (model minus market, in percentage points) and expected value are different measures and are always shown separately.
10/17 hit · +2.03u on 17 flat 1u picks · ROI +11.9% · 2026-08-09 to 2026-10-24
Settled picks apply today's rule to the best sportsbook price recorded before each fight and the model number locked in before the event. Units assume a flat 1 unit on every pick; no stake sizing.