Polymarket UFC 334: Gane vs Hokit
Model win probabilities set against the best sportsbook prices — value picks only where the price pays more than the model says the fight is worth.
- Odds
- pulled Nov 13, 16:29 UTC
- Model run
- Nov 13, 17:55 UTC · feature-v1, trained Jul 20
The model favors Ciryl Gane. Versus the market that is −2 pts on Ciryl Gane. Not +EV: −6.4% per unit at the best price, which needs 66% to break even.
Top Value Picks
Ranked by expected valueBest Available Lines
Main event · best price across 6 sportsbooks, as of the last pull
- Ciryl Gane to win
- Bovada
- -190
- Josh Hokit to win
- DraftKings
- +180
- Over 3.5 rounds
- BetOnline.ag
- +135
- Under 3.5 rounds
- BetOnline.ag
- -155
Polymarket UFC 334: Gane vs Hokit
Sun, Nov 15
| Measure | Gane | Hokit |
|---|---|---|
| Model | 61%fav | 39% |
| Model fair odds | -159 | +159 |
| Best price | -190Bovada | +180DraftKings |
| Edge vs market | −2 pts | +2 pts |
| Expected value | −6.4% | +8.3% |
Model favorite: Ciryl Gane. Not +EV: −6.4% per unit at the best price, which needs 66% to break even.
| Measure | Harrison | Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 64%fav |
| Model fair odds | +176 | -176 |
| Best price | -166BetOnline.ag | +150BetMGM |
| Edge vs market | −25 pts | +25 pts |
| Expected value | −42.0% | +59.5%value pick |
Model favorite: Amanda Nunes. Value pick: +59.5% expected return per unit at the best price.
| Measure | Borralho | Belgaroui |
|---|---|---|
| Model | 64%fav | 36% |
| Model fair odds | -177 | +177 |
| Best price | -158FanDuel | +138BetOnline.ag |
| Edge vs market | +5 pts | −5 pts |
| Expected value | +4.4%value pick | −14.2% |
Model favorite: Caio Borralho. Value pick: +4.4% expected return per unit at the best price.
| Measure | Medic | Holland |
|---|---|---|
| Model | 50%fav | 50% |
| Model fair odds | -100 | +100 |
| Best price | -155DraftKings | +149BetOnline.ag |
| Edge vs market | −9 pts | +9 pts |
| Expected value | −17.6% | +24.3% |
Model favorite: Uros Medic. Below the 60% model-confidence bar for a value pick (−17.6% at the best price).
| Measure | Hasan | Gurule |
|---|---|---|
| Model | 57%fav⚠ Limited data | 43% |
| Model fair odds | -132 | +132 |
| Best price | -950DraftKings | +725BetMGM |
| Edge vs market | −31 pts | +31 pts |
| Expected value | −37.2% | +256.0% |
Model favorite: Bilal Hasan. Below the 60% model-confidence bar for a value pick (−37.2% at the best price).
| Measure | Thompson | Radtke |
|---|---|---|
| Model | 52%fav | 48% |
| Model fair odds | -107 | +107 |
| Best price | -140BetOnline.ag | +128FanDuel |
| Edge vs market | −6 pts | +6 pts |
| Expected value | −11.3% | +10.1% |
Model favorite: Stephen Thompson. Below the 60% model-confidence bar for a value pick (−11.3% at the best price).
| Measure | Dober | Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 60%fav |
| Model fair odds | +147 | -147 |
| Best price | +166BetOnline.ag | -176FanDuel |
| Edge vs market | +3 pts | −3 pts |
| Expected value | +7.5% | −6.6% |
Model favorite: Chris Duncan. Below the 60% model-confidence bar for a value pick (−6.6% at the best price).
| Measure | Miller | McKinney |
|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 69%fav |
| Model fair odds | +219 | -219 |
| Best price | +180FanDuel | -205DraftKings |
| Edge vs market | −3 pts | +3 pts |
| Expected value | −12.1% | +2.1% |
Model favorite: Terrance McKinney. Best price is shorter than -200, so there is little room for the market to be wrong (+2.1%).
| Measure | Johnson | Almeida |
|---|---|---|
| Model | 66%fav | 34% |
| Model fair odds | -196 | +196 |
| Best price | -170BetMGM | +157BetOnline.ag |
| Edge vs market | +5 pts | −5 pts |
| Expected value | +5.1%value pick | −13.1% |
Model favorite: Donte Johnson. Value pick: +5.1% expected return per unit at the best price.
| Measure | Gordon | Costa |
|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 70%fav |
| Model fair odds | +229 | -229 |
| Best price | +315BetOnline.ag | -380DraftKings |
| Edge vs market | +7 pts | −7 pts |
| Expected value | +26.3% | −12.1% |
Model favorite: Melquizael Costa. Best price is shorter than -200, so there is little room for the market to be wrong (−12.1%).
| Measure | Chiasson | Mesquita |
|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 51%fav |
| Model fair odds | +106 | -106 |
| Best price | +205DraftKings | -245FanDuel |
| Edge vs market | +17 pts | −17 pts |
| Expected value | +48.4% | −27.7% |
Model favorite: Bia Mesquita. Below the 60% model-confidence bar for a value pick (−27.7% at the best price).
No sportsbook odds yet, so there's no market number to compare against.
| Measure | Alatengheili | Diaz |
|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 53%fav⚠ Limited data |
| Model fair odds | +111 | -111 |
| Best price | No odds yet | No odds yet |
| Edge vs market | — | — |
| Expected value | — | — |
Model favorite: Juan Diaz. No sportsbook odds yet, so expected value can't be calculated.
| Measure | Elder | Sanches |
|---|---|---|
| Model | 53%fav | 47%⚠ Limited data |
| Model fair odds | -113 | +113 |
| Best price | +100BetMGM | -115Bovada |
| Edge vs market | +5 pts | −5 pts |
| Expected value | +6.3% | −12.4% |
Model favorite: Evan Elder. Below the 60% model-confidence bar for a value pick (+6.3% at the best price).
Model Accuracy
Predictions recorded before each card started, graded against the real result.
98 of 159 fights across 14 events. With that many fights the true hit rate could plausibly be anywhere from 54% to 69%. The separate historical backtest scored 61% on 1,297 older held-out fights. Full track record
Why trust the model
No black box — here's what's actually under the hood.
Every fighter carries a rating built from real results, updated after every card.
61% in a backtest on 1,297 older fights it never saw in training. Live results are tracked separately.
We price fights independently, then compare to the books — the gap is the whole point.